Why Being Delusional is a Superpower

Caption notes

In this 2020 Veritasium video, Derek Muller uses a model of selection for very few places to show how a random factor can change who gets selected even when it accounts for only a small share of the score. Using astronaut recruitment as the setting, he generates random skill and luck scores, combines them with assumed weights, and compares the resulting selection with a ranking by skill alone. The simulation illustrates what happens under those assumptions. He then uses survivorship bias to explain how successful people can readily recall their own efforts while overlooking people who worked hard and fell short. He draws on his own experience to ask viewers to recognize the opportunities they received and create opportunities for others.